2024 NBA picks for March 14 from proven model

We’ve got another exciting Western Conference matchup on Thursday’s NBA schedule as the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Dallas Mavericks will tip off at 10 p.m. ET at the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, Okla. The Thunder are 45-20 overall and 26-7 at home, while the Mavs are 38-28 overall and 18-13 on the road. The Thunder have won and covered the spread in two of their last three head-to-head matchups with the Mavericks.

However, both teams have been profitable against the spread this season, with Dallas going 35-30 against the number, while the Thunder are 39-25. Oklahoma City is favored by 10.5 points in the latest Thunder vs. Mavericks odds, per SportsLine consensus, and the over/under is 235.5 points. Before entering any Mavericks vs. Thunder picks, you’ll want to see the NBA predictions from the model at SportsLine.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past five-plus seasons. The model enters Week 21 of the 2023-24 NBA season on a sizzling 70-46 roll on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning nearly $2,200. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

The model has set its sights on Dallas vs. Oklahoma City. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Thunder vs. Mavs:

Thunder vs. Mavericks spread: Thunder -10.5
Thunder vs. Mavericks over/under: 235.5 points
Thunder vs. Mavericks money line: Thunder: -535, Mavericks: +395
Thunder vs. Mavericks picks: See picks at SportsLine
What you need to know about the Thunder
The Thunder witnessed the end of their three-game winning streak on Tuesday. They took a 121-111 hit to the loss column at the hands of the Indiana Pacers. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had 30 points, 10 rebounds, five assists, two steals and a blocked shot in the loss, while Chet Holmgren also posted a double-double with 15 points and 13 rebounds.

However, Oklahoma City only shot 43.4% from the floor on the night while allowing Indiana to shoot 53.9% from the field. The Thunder also lost the turnover battle 12-9, and they’ll need to clean that up on Thursday against the Mavericks. See which team to pick here.

What you need to know about the Mavericks
Meanwhile, the Mavericks came out on top against the Golden State Warriors by a score of 109-99 on Wednesday. Kyrie Irving dropped a double-double on 23 points and 10 assists. Luka Doncic saw his streak of seven consecutive triple-doubles end but still finished with 21 points, nine assists and three rebounds despite playing less than 30 minutes.

Doncic is listed as questionable after leaving Wednesday’s game with a hamstring injury, and his status will be key for the Mavericks. He’s averaging 34.3 points, 9.8 assists and 9.0 rebounds, and Dallas is 2-5 when he isn’t in the lineup in 2023-24.

Key Betting Info
The Mavericks will be relying on another big game from Irving to pull off a win, especially if Doncic is unable to play. On the year, Irving has averaged 25.2 points, 5.0 assists and 1.2 steals.

Some of the betting trends to consider are:

The Thunder are 19-9 against the spread in their last 28 games when favored at home.
The Thunder are 22-11 against the spread in their last 33 games when at home.
The Mavericks are 35-29 against the spread in their last 64 games vs teams allowing more than 102 points per game.
How to make Thunder vs. Mavericks picks
The model has simulated Thunder vs. Mavs 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you that the model is leaning Under and it’s also generated a point-spread pick that hits well over 50% of the time. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

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